After a great 2024–2025 snow season in Japan with above-average snowfall—thanks in part to La Niña—winter sports enthusiasts around the globe are now wondering: what will next season bring? Will we see another La Niña year, or will El Niño return, possibly bringing less snowfall? Bookmark this post—we’ll be updating it regularly with new reports and insights on what to expect for Japan’s 2025–2026 ski and snowboard season.
La Niña’s Role in Japan’s Snowfall
We’ve taken a deep dive into what La Niña is, how it influences snowfall in Japan, and its historical impact. In short, La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, tends to strengthen the East Asian Winter Monsoon. That drives cold, moisture-laden winds from Siberia across the Sea of Japan, often resulting in heavy snowfall—especially in regions like Hokkaido, Nagano, and Niigata. However, recent trends show variability due to the effects of climate change on Siberian cold-air development.
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So far, the 2025–26 Japan snow forecast currently points to a “normal” season. That said, the door remains open: La Niña could still influence Japan’s snow season, depending on how conditions evolve in the coming months. Stay tuned for autumn 2025 updates, when ENSO trends will become more clear.
For now, cautious optimism is warranted. Historically, La Niña winters often deliver Japan’s legendary powder, but climate change means no two winters are ever exactly the same. Also, with ENSO-neutral conditions currently favored, other atmospheric factors—like the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific storm tracks, and local cold fronts—will play a bigger role. Many neutral years have still brought epic snowfall, especially when a strong cold surge aligns with favorable moisture patterns.
Japan’s official winter forecast, expected later in 2025 from the Japan Meteorological Agency, will factor in all these signals—and we’ll update this post as soon as it’s out.
May 15th, 2025
Last NOAA’s outlook on May 8th, highlights ENSO-neutral conditions through summer 2025, with a 41% chance of La Niña developing by November 2025–January 2026. The International Research Institute (IRI) forecasts a 31% probability of La Niña during December 2025–February 2026, compared to 46% for neutral and 24% for El Niño. The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts 60% ENSO-neutral conditions will persist to boreal autumn, and do not venture it forecast any further yet.
→ Key Takeaways: At the moment, neither El Niño nor La Niña shows a strong preference for winter season, and neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome. ENSO cycles typically recurring every 2–7 years make predicting 2026 challenging, as oceanic and atmospheric drivers evolve.
