The 2025–2026 snow season in Japan was a bit irregular, with a very promising start in November, a warmer than usual december, and finally late La Niña conditions kicking in in January, which left us with heavy, above-average snowfall mid January to mid February, particularly in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side. In general, it was a colder-than-average winter, with spaced record-breaking storms that had the self-defense forces to assist, instead of regular snowfalls as other seasons. March and April were warmer than usual, resulting on very early spring conditions and resorts having to reduce the number of lifts in operation despite most being able to operate until May as usual.
Looking ahead to the 26-27 season, the consensus is that a so-called Super El Niño could develop this summer towards Autumn, with early forecasts from NOAA and international climate agencies indicate a high probability of El Niño conditions persisting into winter, with some ensemble models even suggesting the possibility of a “very strong” event.
For skiers and snowboarders planning a trip to Japan, the big question is obvious: what does this mean for snowfall across the Japanese Alps and Hokkaido?
The short answer: potentially warmer temperatures and more variable snow conditions, but not necessarily a bad season. We will update this post as new information comes in, so keep it on your bookmarks to know first hand what to expect for Japan’s 2026–2027 ski and snowboard season.
El Niño’s Role in Japan’s Snowfall and climate change impact
El Niño weakens the Siberian High/East Asian winter monsoon, reducing the cold, moisture-rich northwest flows over the Sea of Japan. Climatological analyses found that El Niño winters are warmer in Japan, with less snow along Japan’s coastal plains in Hokuriku, Niigata, western Tohoku and Hokkaido.
One of the biggest lessons from recent El Niño events, especially the 2023–24 winter, is that historical analogues are becoming less reliable.
Despite being classified as a very strong El Niño, the 2023–24 event produced weaker-than-expected results. For example, while it was a unusual dry season for inland resorts in Honshu, central Hokkaido resorts and close to the Sea of Japan resorts such as Myoko and Madarao had an average seasson, which drawn skiers from other parts of Japan making for a very busy season. Therefore, scientists now believe widespread ocean warming linked to climate change may partially disrupt traditional El Niño behaviors, and even during warmer winters, localized cold outbreaks can still generate exceptional snowfall events, especially in regions with ideal geography and elevation.
At this stage, several broad trends appear more likely for the 2026–2027 season:
Hokkaido
Hokkaido remains Japan’s most resilient snow destination during warmer winters thanks to its northern latitude and colder baseline climate. Central resorts such as Furano, Tomamu, and Asahidake may still receive frequent snowfalls, although temperatures could fluctuate more than usual. Snow quality is likely to remain strongest during midwinter (January–February).
Nagano & Niigata
Higher elevation and inland resorts in Nagano and parts of Niigata should continue to perform relatively well, places such as Shiga Kogen, Hakuba’s upper alpine terrain, Myoko Kogen’s upper zones and Madarao and Tangram during colder cycles may still see excellent powder windows, especially during strong cold surges from Siberia.
Other Regions
Lower elevations and resort base areas like Yuzawa resorts, Bandai Alps, Gunma resorts and West Ski Resorts could face more rain events, faster snowpack melt, less reliable early-season coverage and greater freeze-thaw variability
Last Information
No public high-resolution model output for winter 2026–27 is yet available. We’ll continue updating this forecast as new NOAA, JMA, and international seasonal outlooks are released through summer and autumn 2026.